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October 10, 2005

Why Bush Nominated Miers

Why did Bush nominate Harriet Miers you ask?

2 words.

Stragety & Loilty

Stragety

The strategy of this nomonation seems to have been lost on many pollsters, commentators and pundits.
Politics is like War, in that, to be sucessful you must have a Goal, and to achieve that goal you need a good Strategy.

What is Bushs' goal?
I think it is to get a Supreme Court Justice on the bench who will interpret the law from a legal standpoint, rather than a political one.
The first rule in Strategy is: Alway have a Plan-B, (a C, D and E is good too). Plan-B can be used if Plan-A fails.
Plan-A is to get someone on the bench who can interpret the law from an "original intent" philosophy.
Plan-B is to get someone who might not be such a "purist" but is still good enough to be second best.

It`s my opinion that Miers is Bushs' Plan-B, and she has been for a long time.
I believe that her nomination stems from a contingency plan that was devised long ago, with her knowlege and consent, for just such an unexpected situation as this.

The strategy of the nomination is this; To achieve Plan-A, Plan-B must be sacraficed.
Miers is cannon fodder.
She will be the lightning rod that will absorb ideological and partisan critisism and re-acquaint the American public to just how nasty one of these hearings can be.

After the guns have silenced, while the Pros are sulking and the Cons are gloating, Bush will quietly slip in his original Plan-A choice.
After having seen the spectacle that was The Miers Hearings, the public will be in no mood for a Round 2.

The public has a short attention span, and while they will stop and look at a train wreck, they don`t want to see 2 of them.
Politicians know this and despite whatever misgivings they might have had over the nominee, they will approve him/her. Having been mollified over Miers, and continuing pressure from the public to "get on with the buisness of running the country", they will have no heart and no teeth to fight another battle.

The reason this strategy seems to have been lost on most of the armchair pundits is because they believe Bush really is stupid.
Something they seem to have forgotten is that picking the right person for the job is something Bush is very good at.
That they like to think he's stupid plays right into his hands. The best way to achieve your goal against opposition is to have the opposers underestimate you.
Every sucessful suprise military attack counts on the enemy underestimating you. Why should politics be any different?


And that's the Stragety of Bushs' choice.


Loilty


The Loyalty reasons for this choice is obvious, and what people seem to be using as their excuse to be against it.
The problem is that those people want to confuse Cronyism with Loyalty. They are not the same.

Cro-ny-ism: Favoritism shown to old friends without regard for their qualifications, as in political appointments to office.

She is an old friend of his, no doubt about that, but is she un-qualified?
The short and sweet of it is this: "The Constitution does not explicitly establish any qualifications for Justices of the Supreme Court."

But we don`t have time or patience to rely on the Constitution in regards to Supreme Court nominees.
Not when politics and special intrests are concerned.

So, not being a lawyer I did some checking on her qualifications at a lawyers site.
Yes, just one lawyers site, but a very good lawyer nontheless who seems to know what he's talking about.
Beldar has been giving a thorough breakdown and evaluation of her qualifications and experience since the beginning.

THIS post in particular gives a rundown of her very capable knowlege and abilities.
Taking on and winning against such small buisnesses as Microsoft. (For the geeks out there)

For the lawyers out there the case of Jones v. Bush, 122 F. Supp. 2d 713 (pdf) is a good indication of her abilities.
It`s also a big part of where the "Loilty" comes in.

Not only is Bush loyal to her, but more importantly, she is loyal to him.

If by some fluke, she were to squeek by the hearings and be appointed, I think that her rulings will be more in line with "original intent" than politics or even "Loilty."

That is how Plan-A and Plan-B come together.
Submit the Plan-B nominee to act as Lightning Rod to be the target of Special Interests on both sides, and partisan politics.
When Plan-B nominee fails muster (as expected), submit Plan-A nominee.
Results: Due to the fact that the public has lost all respect and interest in these hearings, and the fact that it is the public that is the Bottom Line to a politician come election time, Plan-A nominee will pass the muster.

IF Plan-B does pass confirmation hearings to become the next Supreme Court Justice, then I still think Miers is totally "qualified".

Despite the media and popular opinion (YES, even on the right) Bush isn't stupid, but things work out better for him if you think he is.

That`s my non-legal, non-binding opinion.

"Dance puppets, DANCE!!!"

(I couldn`t resist :)


- Joatmoaf -

October 10, 2005 at 02:23 PM | Permalink

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Comments

What do we do if she gets confirmed?

I kept waiting for Bush to annouce days before the election that we had Osama and found WMD.

It didn't happen.

The key to Bush is not to underestimate him.

But it is also not to give him too much credit.

He is neither the idiot nor the evil-genius.

Posted by: KJ at Oct 10, 2005 4:18:45 PM

What do we do?
I`m pretty sure she was pick #2 all along.
I think they`re aware of the possibility (unlikely as it is) and are content to settle for 2nd best.

I don`t really give him too much credit I think.
This is really nothing more than smart politics, and that Bush is the one doing it is probably why no one noticed.

Since they assume that he's totally stupid, their guard is down and they'll not even expect something like this.

Flip the coin over and imagine it were Reagan or Clinton making a pick.
Since those 2 were considered smart, the first thing people would have done is try to figure out what the REAL choice was.

But the fact is, politics is politics, and what works for a smart guy might work even better for a dumb one.
Especially since no one would expect it.

Posted by: Joatmoaf at Oct 10, 2005 6:24:29 PM

>

Huh?

Colin Powell, Michael Powell, Horse Whisperer at FEMA, Chertoff, Tommy Thompson, Julie Myers ICE nominee, Karen Hughes as Fundi Goodwill Ambassador, etc., etc.

Don't get me wrong, I like Bush. So much so that I even have a pic of him and a letter he wrote me hanging up in my living room. I think you drank a little too much Dubya Kool-Aid there. It's OK to likeand respect the guy, but still be objective and criticize when needed.

Posted by: Chris at Oct 13, 2005 4:18:59 AM

Oh I do, I just don`t think it`s needed this time.

Posted by: Joatmoaf at Oct 13, 2005 6:11:37 AM

Joatmoaf, I really like your blogging. Especially since I often agree with you. Thanks.

Posted by: Peggy at Oct 14, 2005 2:30:04 PM

Thank you Peggy. Comments like that make it all worthwhile, (Especially that last sentence ; )

Posted by: Joatmoaf at Oct 14, 2005 10:13:36 PM