More Blacks Voting For Bush/Cheney In 2004?

Clarence Page sees a significant number of blacks moving to the GOP ticket:

A New York Times poll released Tuesday showed that among likely voters, 47 percent support Bush, 45 percent are for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.

But in the race breakdown, the Bush-Cheney ticket is buoyed by an amazing 17 percent from African-Americans. (Kerry receives 76 percent of the black voters and Nader only 1 percent.)

Although 17 percent is still less than one in five, it is more than twice the tiny 8 percent turnout that the Bush-Cheney ticket received in the 2000 election.

Also on Tuesday, a poll with a much larger sample of black voters was released by the Washington-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a leading think tank on black-oriented issues. It showed a very similar African-American boost for the Bush-Cheney ticket: 18 percent versus 69 for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader.

Since the center's poll proved remarkably prescient in the 2000 presidential election, showing 9 percent black support for Bush (only 1 point short of what the ticket actually received), I wondered if a virtual black blowout for Bush was on the way.

Analysts see a shift in traditional voting patterns among black Americans, especially where GOP support is concerned:

Bositis says most of it comes from conservative, churchgoing African-Americans who are over age 50, opposed to gay marriage and have not experienced a decline in their incomes during the Bush years.

On the flip side, Kerry's strongest support among African-Americans comes from adults between the ages of 18 and 35 who feel financially worse off than the older generations, according to poll takers.

That marks an unexpected generational switch. In 2000, Bositis said, more members of the black under-35 group called themselves Republicans or independents than any other age bracket. This year, more of them call themselves Democrats than any other age bracket and more of the older voters call themselves Republicans or independents.

The article also mentioned that, while young blacks are more likely to support Kerry, they are less likely to vote. Unfortunately for the GOP, the WOT is an issue that doesn't resonate with blacks in general, while the economy is extremely important to them. This will hurt him in the swing states:

An Ohio statewide poll by the University of Cincinnati, for example, shows that in a swing state where voters are quite evenly divided overall, only 3 percent of African-Americans support Bush and 95 percent support Kerry.

- Cassandra