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October 21, 2004

More Blacks Voting For Bush/Cheney In 2004?

Clarence Page sees a significant number of blacks moving to the GOP ticket:

A New York Times poll released Tuesday showed that among likely voters, 47 percent support Bush, 45 percent are for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.
But in the race breakdown, the Bush-Cheney ticket is buoyed by an amazing 17 percent from African-Americans. (Kerry receives 76 percent of the black voters and Nader only 1 percent.)
Although 17 percent is still less than one in five, it is more than twice the tiny 8 percent turnout that the Bush-Cheney ticket received in the 2000 election.
Also on Tuesday, a poll with a much larger sample of black voters was released by the Washington-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a leading think tank on black-oriented issues. It showed a very similar African-American boost for the Bush-Cheney ticket: 18 percent versus 69 for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader.
Since the center's poll proved remarkably prescient in the 2000 presidential election, showing 9 percent black support for Bush (only 1 point short of what the ticket actually received), I wondered if a virtual black blowout for Bush was on the way.

Analysts see a shift in traditional voting patterns among black Americans, especially where GOP support is concerned:

Bositis says most of it comes from conservative, churchgoing African-Americans who are over age 50, opposed to gay marriage and have not experienced a decline in their incomes during the Bush years.
On the flip side, Kerry's strongest support among African-Americans comes from adults between the ages of 18 and 35 who feel financially worse off than the older generations, according to poll takers.
That marks an unexpected generational switch. In 2000, Bositis said, more members of the black under-35 group called themselves Republicans or independents than any other age bracket. This year, more of them call themselves Democrats than any other age bracket and more of the older voters call themselves Republicans or independents.

The article also mentioned that, while young blacks are more likely to support Kerry, they are less likely to vote. Unfortunately for the GOP, the WOT is an issue that doesn't resonate with blacks in general, while the economy is extremely important to them. This will hurt him in the swing states:

An Ohio statewide poll by the University of Cincinnati, for example, shows that in a swing state where voters are quite evenly divided overall, only 3 percent of African-Americans support Bush and 95 percent support Kerry.

- Cassandra

October 21, 2004 at 05:29 AM | Permalink


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The voting patterns of the black American is the best single best argument in favor of my IQ conclusions. It is also a sad commentary on group think.

Posted by: The Bell Curve at Oct 23, 2004 9:33:07 AM

I think that's starting to change - I also think it's more a comment on the stranglehold of the media on information in this country than anything else.

The truth is out there, and people are surprisingly responsive to it -- if they are exposed to it.

Posted by: Cassandra at Oct 23, 2004 12:58:34 PM

2004 is different, the GOP, the WOT, the Republicans, whomever may keep thinking that young blacks are not voting. That margin will be slashed November 2nd. KERRY 2004! A Safer America.

Posted by: Alicia Best-Stephens at Oct 26, 2004 12:13:02 PM

The WOT is a whomever? Glad to see that you recognize the GOP and teh Republicans as synonomous with the WOT. So do most here.

So, are the mindnumbingly collectivist young blacks going to all vote Kerry in 2004? How nice. It is good to know that they can't see past the hype.

Posted by: Alice, the Second Best Stephens at Oct 26, 2004 12:23:34 PM

Alicia, no one wants young blacks not to vote. That's just plain silly. The article said young blacks are less likely to vote statistically, which has been true historically.

We would, however, like to see more informed voting. It is never a good sign when an entire racial or demographic group votes as a block - groupthink isn't generally a healthy thing and if white people voted based on race as a primary consideration I think you'd agree that wasn't a good thing.

I think what we have been trying to work toward in this country is a point where we can view each other as Americans first and not as members of some sort of exclusive skin color society.

Posted by: Cassandra at Oct 26, 2004 12:34:28 PM

How dare young blacks vote for anyone other than Kerry! This independence must stop immediatly! Don't they know who their saviors are!

Posted by: The Left at Oct 26, 2004 12:43:10 PM